A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
